TYRN SEA v. 1.6 BetaBloom & mucilage preconditions · Calabrian coast

Scientific bibliography

Peer-reviewed articles underpinning the TYRN SEA model: marine heatwaves, stratification, harmful algal blooms (HAB), Mediterranean mucilage, surface layer dynamics.

Main references (by impact factor)

  1. [1]

    Gobler, C. J., Doherty, O. M., Hattenrath-Lehmann, T. K., Griffith, A. W., Kang, Y. & Litaker, R. W. (2017). Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 114(19), 4975-4980.

    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1619575114 · Impact Factor: ~12,8

    Global reference on the HAB-SST link. Shows, on high-resolution temperature data 1982-2016, that toxic species like Alexandrium fundyense and Dinophysis acuminata have significantly increased their potential growth rate and bloom-season duration along Atlantic coasts between 40°N and 60°N. Cited in the IPCC chapters on HAB.

  2. [2]

    Anderson, C. R. et al. (2025). Warming and freshening coastal waters impact harmful algal bloom frequency in high latitudes. Communications Earth & Environment (Nature Portfolio).

    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02421-y · Impact Factor: ~8,9

    Modelling demonstration that warming and decreased salinity act synergistically to increase HAB frequency in coastal waters. The combination is directly relevant to the Calabrian coast, exposed to river runoff and accelerated warming.

  3. [3]

    Li, Z., D’Ortenzio, F., Taillandier, V., Claustre, H., Cassou, C., Conan, P. & Tedetti, M. (2024). Phytoplankton Spring Bloom Inhibited by Marine Heatwaves in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL109141.

    DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109141 · Impact Factor: ~5,4

    Mediterranean-NW specific publication. Uses BioGeoChemical-Argo floats, satellite chlorophyll, and Copernicus reanalysis. Shows that winter marine heatwaves can suppress the spring bloom by up to -70% via early stratification that hinders nutrient renewal from deep waters. Methodological caveat cited in our Method page for the Mediterranean region.

  4. [4]

    Wells, M. L., Karlson, B., Wulff, A., Kudela, R., Trick, C., Asnaghi, V., Berdalet, E., Cochlan, W., Davidson, K., De Rijcke, M., Dutkiewicz, S., Hallegraeff, G., Flynn, K. J., Legrand, C., Paerl, H., Silke, J., Suikkanen, S., Thompson, P. & Trainer, V. L. (2020). Harmful algal blooms: A climate change co-stressor in marine and freshwater ecosystems. Harmful Algae, 91, 101632.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2019.101632 · Impact Factor: ~6,3

    Systematic review on the HAB sector's reference journal. Concludes that warming + acidification + stratification change have convergent effects on the spatial and temporal expansion of harmful algal blooms. Underpins the multiplicative principle (warmth × stratification × ...) used by TYRN SEA in the precondition index computation.

  5. [5]

    Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A. & Wernberg, T. (2016). A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Progress in Oceanography, 141, 227-238.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Impact Factor: ~3,8

    Formal definition of Marine Heatwave (MHW): a period of at least 5 consecutive days above the 90th climatological percentile, with a 4-level intensity scale (Moderate, Strong, Severe, Extreme). It is the international operational definition used by our real-time model.

  6. [6]

    Anestis, K., Park, B. S., Park, T. G., Stoecker, D. K. & Edvardsen, B. (2021). Effect of marine heatwaves on bloom formation of the harmful dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides: Two sides of the same coin? Harmful Algae, 106, 102067.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2021.102067 · Impact Factor: ~6,3

    Case study on bloom formation of the toxic dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides in association with MHW. Shows that MHW act as both trigger and brake depending on intensity: above certain thresholds the heat itself damages the target species. Reason why our precondition index is not linear in SST but uses a thermal window with saturation.

  7. [7]

    Pisano, A., Marullo, S., Artale, V., Falcini, F., Yang, C., Leonelli, F. E., Santoleri, R. & Buongiorno Nardelli, B. (2025). Insights into sea surface temperature variability and the impact of long-term warming on marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea. State of the Planet (Copernicus Publications), 6-osr9, 10.

    DOI: 10.5194/sp-6-osr9-10-2025 · Impact Factor: ~4,1

    Quantifies for the Mediterranean: accumulated +1.3 °C warming 1982-2019, with Mediterranean SST increase twice the global mean for 1980-2020. The associated water-column stability is a documented physical precondition for coastal blooms. Reference for the climatological background data shown in our Archive page.

  8. [8]

    Danovaro, R., Umani, S. F. & Pusceddu, A. (2009). Climate Change and the Potential Spreading of Marine Mucilage and Microbial Pathogens in the Mediterranean Sea. PLOS ONE, 4(9), e7006.

    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0007006 · Impact Factor: ~3,3 (paper seminale, citato >250 volte)

    Seminal paper on Mediterranean mucilage. Demonstrates a nearly exponential increase in outbreaks over the last 20 years correlated with thermal anomalies (Spearman rs=0.50, p<0.003). Also identifies human pathogens contained in the mucilage. Historical reference of the field.

  9. [9]

    Krom, M. D., Emeis, K.-C. & Van Cappellen, P. (2010). Why is the Eastern Mediterranean phosphorus limited? Progress in Oceanography, 85(3-4), 236-244.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2010.03.003 · Impact Factor: ~3,8

    Explains why the Mediterranean (the Eastern basin in particular, which includes the Calabrian Ionian) is structurally P-limited, with N:P ratios well below the classic Redfield (16:1). The reason we tested the absolute Redfield factor as a potential additional predictor in our model and discarded it as non-discriminating (see methodological note in our Method page).

Regulatory references

Primary data sources

All references are peer-reviewed articles published in international scientific journals. DOI links lead to the publishers' official pages. When full-text access is restricted, the preprint or post-print is typically available on the authors' institutional repositories (ResearchGate, ORCID, ResearchSquare).